You nod and watch her. She is an exceptionally beautiful girl. You think of that old saying Show me a beautiful girl and I’ll show you someone who is tired of fucking her. You doubt you would have ever tired of her, though.
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You nod and watch her. She is an exceptionally beautiful girl. You think of that old saying Show me a beautiful girl and I’ll show you someone who is tired of fucking her. You doubt you would have ever tired of her, though.
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But the overfit model scores those extra points in essence by cheating—by fitting noise rather than signal. It actually does a much worse job of explaining the real world. As obvious as this might seem when explained in this way, many forecasters completely ignore this problem. The wide array of statistical methods available to researchers […]
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Tags:Economic Modelling·Modelling·Quotes·Statistical Inference·Statistics
Nobody saw it coming. When you can’t state your innocence, proclaim your ignorance: this is often the first line of defense when there is a failed forecast.
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Tags:Data·prediction·Statistics
[But] men may construe things after their fashion / Clean from the purpose of the things themselves,” Shakespeare warns us through the voice of Cicero—good advice for anyone seeking to pluck through their newfound wealth of information. It was hard to tell the signal from the noise. The story the data tells us is often […]
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Tags:Bias·Confirmation Bias·Data·prediction·Statistics
He liked the works of his friends, which is beautiful as loyalty but can be disastrous as judgement.
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Tags:criticism·Culture·Friendship·nepotism
Nobody climbs on skis now and almost everybody breaks their legs but maybe it is easier in the end to break your legs than to break your heart although they say that everything breaks now and that sometimes, afterwards, many are stronger at the broken places.
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Tags:break ups·love·relationships
Hunger is good discipline.
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Tags:1%·99%·Equality
Never to go on trips with anyone you do not love.
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Tags:Quotes·relationships·Travel
In those days may people went to the cafes at the corner of the Boulevard Montparnasse and the Boulevard Raspail to be seen publicly and in a way such places anticipated the columnists as the daily substitutes for immortality.
Tags:Celebrity·Gossip·media·Media Coverage·PR·Quotes·Reporting
By then I knew that everything good and bad left an emptiness when it stopped. But if it was bad, the emptiness filled up by itself. If it was good you could only fill it by finding something better.
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Tags:contentment·happiness